This morning I read an analysis of consumer trends in mobile devices that reinforces my assessment. The article, written by mobile industry consultant Eric Chan, makes a compelling argument that data-intensive, cost-pressured consumers will increasingly choose a tablet-feature phone combination over a tablet-smartphone combination. In Mr. Chan's words:
Consumers use smartphones primarily for media and data capabilities, not calling features. That means they're not really 'telephones,' per se; to the average person, they are portable media devices. So why stick with a three-inch screen when you can have one three times larger? And if you do buy a tablet, why continue with a smartphone? At current prices of $200 to $400, the smartphone is too expensive to win the battle against tablets at a mass-consumer level.
There are problems with this analysis. As commentators on the article rightly note, there is a convenience factor associated with the smartphone's combination of small size and functionality that feature phones cannot yet match. But I see two things that mitigate this. First, feature phones are likely to get smarter over time. Second, as smartphones become larger to compete with the superior screen size of tablets (which, as Mr. Chan noted, is already happening), they will squeeze the very pocket space that gives them their current competitive advantage.
All of this reinforces my belief that, for most BI-related knowledge work, the tablet will be the mobile app client of choice.
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